Logic and Rationale

Team 1 finishes first in the league, team 2 finishes second and so till fourth

What is the advantage that the team 1 has over team 2 when it comes to their path to the finals?

Absolutely nothing. They play each other to decide the finalists. And the loser plays the winner of the 3rd Vs 4th match-up to decide the second finalist.

If team 1 and team 2 swap places, neither team gains nor loses anything.

The same equality is maintained between teams finishing in 3rd and 4th place. They wouldn’t mind swapping.

Now compare team2 and team 3.

In purely probabilistic terms – if each team has an equal chance of winning a game – team 2 has a 75% chance of reaching the final. Team 3 on the other hand has a 25% chance of making the finals.

Team 3, therefore, is three times more likely to make the final. That is quite an advantage.

To sum it up, there is no extra advantage if you finish top instead of second or finish in third instead of fourth.

But you have a mammoth advantage if you finish second in the league instead of third. If anyone is willing, then I am ready to take a wager that the top two teams will make the finals.

Some of you might have a problem with the fact that I gave every team an equal chance of winning a play-off game. It is very reasonable given the quirky nature of Twenty-20 cricket. But for the sake of argument, we will assign a higher winning probability – 55% – to the team which finished higher in the league.

The chances of making the finals are now

Team 1 – 80%
Team 2 – 75%
Team 3 – 25%
Team 4 – 20%

See that. I am a trained mathematician so I am confident of having done the math right. But you can get the numbers verified if you doubt my academic credentials.

I am still willing to take the wager. You can tweak the probability of winning the game but it doesn’t change the bare fact.

The system creates two sets of teams. Within the sets, there is hardly any difference in terms of their chances but between the two of them there is a world of difference. And that is unfair.

What is the best way of doing it?

There should be a best of 3 series from the knock-out round onwards. The higher ranked team gets to play two games at home including the decider. They have an advantage in that sense but they shouldn’t be given a chance to make the final on a platter.

That is what the current system does and that is completely unfair.

Sports leagues around the world try and ensure that the players participating in those leagues are model citizens. They often fine the players for improper conduct. Just yesterday, Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA was fined a hundred thousand dollars for mouthing a gay slur against the referee, Bernie Adams.

That’s a lot of money – probably more than what the referee will make in a whole year.

But will it act as a deterrent for Kobe Bryant – and ensure that players and officials in the NBA will not be subjected to such taunts in the NBA?

I don’t think so.

It’s a mere drop in the ocean for a guy who makes more 25 million dollars from salary alone.

Will it make poor Bernie feel any better? Will it assuage his feelings?

Don’t think so, too.

So, why should the league get to pocket a hundred thousand when the punishment that it’s meted out isn’t effective enough?

Here’s an alternative.

Give some of that money to Bernie Adams.

Firstly, it’s not as unreasonable as you think. The ref could sue Kobe and make a lot more.

Secondly, it makes Bernie feel a lot better for sure.

Most importantly, it pisses Kobe Bryant.

And that surely is a more effective punishment.

I have finished reading Futebol by Alex Bellos which is the best book on Brazilian football and Tor by Uli Hesse Lichtenberger which is one of the finest works in English on German football. Both of them do a fine job and all football fans interested in the football history and culture of the two great football nations will be well advised to read them.

Both these books have a chapter dedicated to football nomenclature. And the difference in the subjects selected by both authors reaffirms what we already know, is an important fundamental difference in the football culture of the two nations.

Bellos makes the first comprehensive effort to explain how nicknames are given to individual footballers in Brazil. How the “inho” gets added to a name and why some nicknames like Juninho Perumbucano have two words. It will be an interesting exercise to apply the same principles to players from other sports and come up nicknames like Waughinho for Mark Waugh.

Lichtenberger on the other hand, devotes an entire chapter to explain how German football clubs are named. The terminology is based on a reverence for history and the clubs origins.

The importance that each writer gives to the nomenclature of the particular subject is clearly indicative of the high regard for the subject in that country’s football culture.

As we have always known.

Individuals matter in Brazil and Clubs matter in Germany.

This comes up all the time.

“How can a guy be a gynecologist?”

And I can never come up with a decent answer.

Like, the way females can be a _________?

I really need to know.

Update

I think I have one.

What about a female manager of a mens football team.

Tim Harford ( economist and best selling author of Undercover Economist fame) makes a very good argument about how population and population growth is linked to innovation. I will not get into details ( please read the book for that or contact me on my email) but the argument is fairly reasonable and backed by research and data.

The relationship is directly proportional and the causality is evident.

Having lived in India for the last 30 years, I couldn’t help but ask him the question

@timharford. if population size and growth is critical to innovation then why are Indian sub-continent countries inventing nothing.

Tim Harford as always has replied.

@avnishanand A VERY good question.

I am guessing he will have more to say on this. Watch this space.

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